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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

April Fool's NBA Action: Hopefully the Joke Won't be on us!

There are 12 NBA games scheduled for Thursday evening. Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings methodology highlights the following high conviction against-the-spread plays (high-conviction plays are those where our power ratings model has amassed a better than 50% win rate handicapping games between the two involved teams, AND where the win percentage is greater than 50% for games with the indicated level of implied value ± 0.5 point (we define implied value as the difference between the spread estimate produced by our power ratings and the actual betting line):

Washington Wizards -10.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 4:05pm Pacific

Indiana Pacers +4.0 @ Boston Celtics, 4:35pm Pacific

Toronto Raptors -9.5 @ Minnesota TImberwolves, 5:05pm Pacific

Utah Jazz -5.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 6:05pm Pacific

LA Clippers +2.5 @ Portland Trail Blazers, 7:05pm Pacific

LA Lakers +9.0 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35pm Pacific

Separately, we also highlight Houston to cover. Our power ratings model makes the Rockets roughly 11 point favorites. However, Rudy Gay's consussion-induced absence is expected to boost Houston's edge to about 15 (the model was last calibrated before Gay took Marc Gasol's elbow to the head, so the Kings Small Forward's inability to go is not factored into the numbers).

In our estimation, if Dwight Howard plays, the Rocket's favor increases even more (Howard is currently listed as questionable).

Houston Rockets -12.0 vs Sacramento Kings, 5:05pm Pacific

And finally, our power-ratings methodology has the Bucks and Bulls even at BMO Harris Bradley Center tonight, making the play on the 4.5 home underdog compelling. The model has nailed 52% of the 25 games with similar value propositions, but has only cashed in on games featuring either of these teams in 45% of all instances. However, validation of this pick by our regression model upgrades what would otherwise be a mere lean to an official play.

Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 vs Chcago Bulls, 5:05pm Pacific

Happy betting!!

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