Yesterday, we identified several instances where injuries skewed NBA betting lines as well as bettor perceptions regarding likely against-the-spread outcomes. We translated such mis-pricings into opportunity and cashed in on San Antonio taking advantage of a Grizzlies team absent their 4+ RPM starting Small Forward, and on the Pacers beating a Mavericks unit without their primary Shooting Guard. The only injury-adjusted play that did not quite go our way was the Lakers +8 at the Nets. However, as LA lost by exactly 8, we averted the loss and managed a push instead. As such, our published picks were an impressive 2-0-1 Sunday.
For today, we think the marketplace has again inaccurately accounted for lineup shakeups resulting from unavailable personnel. We hope our approach continues to exploit such discrepancies.
Boston Celtics +3.5 @ Charlotte Hornets
Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings give the Hornets just over a one point advantage versus the Celtics on their home floor tonight. However, the numbers do not consider that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out for Charlotte (the Hornets' starting Small Forward was injured after the last revision of our weekly power ratings). As Kidd-Gilchrist's whole-season RPM is +2.44 and his presumed replacements sport very negative RPMs, we estimate that this change will cost the Hornets about 5 spread points. Thus, we expect Charlotte to lose outright by about 4 without Kidd-Gilchrist. As such, we perceive greater than 7 points value to Celtics backers.
(The Celtics Isaiah Thomas is listed as probable for this contest.)
Memphis Grizzlies -8.5 vs. Sacramento Kings
Our work ranks Memphis #5 in the league this week, while Sacramento is #25. This difference translates to an expected margin of victory of 12.8 points for the Grizzlies when they host the Kings at FedEx Forum tonight.
However, last weeks power ratings do not account for the Kings plan to rest both Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins tonight. Nor is it aware of Tony Allen's recent injury, which sidelines the Grizz's starting Small Forward as well. Using whole-season RPMs to adjust for injuries, we conclude that, generally, the Gay-Cousins tandem improves Sac's margin by better than 7 points, while Allen is worth roughly six spread points to Memphis.
Since the Kings unavailable personnel is expected to cost 8 points, while Memphis' lineup changes should result in 6 points of detriment on average, player changes for this contest result in about 2 additional points advantage for the favorite. Look for Memphis to seal the deal by double digits.
Atlanta Hawks -8.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Our power ratings see the Hawks as only 6.3 points better than the Bucks tonight if all players were available. However, Milwaukee's Jared Dudley has been ruled out of tonight's action due to his ailing back. Subtracting Dudley's average contribution (again, based on his whole-season RPM of +2.86) and adding in assumed contributions from his replacements (Ersan Ilyasova, -1.23 RPM; and Johnny O'Bryant III, -4.92 RPM) changes our spread estimate by more than 5 points (in the Hawks favor). Atlanta's aforementioned 6.3 point edge swells to 11.5 points after adjusting for injuries.
Los Angeles Lakers +4.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers
Based on personnel availability and expectations as of March 23rd, our work makes the 76ers 1-point favorites when the Lakers come to the Wells Fargo Center tonight. However, Los Angeles' Carlos Boozer is listed as doubtful tonight and Jeremy Lin is out. As we remarked yesterday, Boozer's inability to move his feet on defense at this stage of his career makes him a liability, as measured by Real Plus/Minus. As younger players like Ryan Kelly and Tarik Black are better able to stay in front of opposing big men, they sport superior RPMs to the 12th year big from Duke. Thus, Boozer's absence from the Laker lineup actually improves LA's expected win margin by 1.7 points.
However, Jeremy Lin does boast a positive RPM, while this statistic for backup, Jabari Brown, is quite negative. Accordingly, Lin's inability to go tonight saps about about 2.5 spread points to the Lakers (we think).
When we adjust our original line estimate to account for the Lakers shorthandedness, we conclude that Philly is about 2 points better than LA, and the model's forecast of the Lakers +4.5 stands.
Happy betting!!