Houston Rockets -13.5 @ Minnesota TImberwolves
Our Real Plus/Minus-based power ratings framework points to Houston by about 18 as hosts to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Rockets will enter this contest with a 7-3 record of late (both straight up and against the spread). Further, the Rocket's premier Center, Dwight Howard, who had been sidelined for the preceding two months due to knee issues, recently rejoined the team. Howard was limited to 16 minutes in his return Wednesday, and will reportedly play only 20 minutes tonight, however, his seven-foot-plus frame is likely to have a pronounced impact on defense.
Minnesota is 2 of their last 10 and has beat the number only three times over this period. While the T-Wolves managed to split their last four games, these contests were against losing teams. The six games that preceded the .500 run saw Minnesota defeated each time, by an average of 14 points. Inline with our thinking that a Dwight Howard-anchored defense is more formidable, our simulation work has us on alert for depressed shooting percentages and higher than average turnovers from Minnesota tonight, in what we think will amount to a blowout.
Houston will likely have to go it without Patrick Beverley Friday, as the starting Point Guard will reportedly miss 1-2 weeks owing to a torn ligament in his left wrist. This injury is not baked into our power ratings numbers (as it occurred after the last reset). We calculate that Beverley's absence costs Houston about 1 spread point per game on average (assuming his minutes are distributed among Jason Terry, Pablo Prigioni and Nick Johnson, and that the total number of possessions in this game approximate Houston's average number of possessions at home plus Minnesota's average number of possessions when travelling).
The Timberwolves too are afflicted by injury. Minnesota is without its starting Center, Nikola Pekovic, for an indefinite period, and first string Point Guard, Ricky Rubio, and Shooting Guard Kevin Martin are both listed as doubful for tonight's contest. Pekovic's inability to go and Rubio's limited availability are probably reflected in our ratings given their absences during the preceding week, however, Martin potentially sitting out is news. As likely replacement players, such as Gary Neal and Zach Lavine sport much lower RPMs than Kevin Martin -- and much lower than the Rockets players that will inherit Beverley's playing time -- Minnesota's shorthandedness trumps Houston's, and leads us to expect a greater margin than the 18ish points the model calls for.
Happy betting!!