Mar 19th NBA Action: Playing Total on Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets u215
TeamRankings.com lists the Rockets as the top team in the league by overall defensive efficiency when playing at home. Further, Houston's opposition tonight, the Denver Nuggets, are the third worst club on the road as measured by total field goal percentage. As such, we would not be surprised to see Denver lay an egg, perhaps akin to their output against the Grizzlies at the Grindhouse Monday evening (Memphis held the Nuggets to an anemic 82 points in that meeting).
Similarly, Houston ranks 26th (of 30 NBA teams) in shooting percentage at home.
Against this backdrop, we find it hard to take exception to the signals from our three-factor value model, which recommends betting the UNDER in this contest. The two simulation routines we employ anticipate a combined total score in the 202-208 ballpark, while a quant factor (derived from each teams historical scoring tendencies this season and the strength of the opposing defense tonight) calls for an even lower number: 200.
Of the 14 games where either Houston or Denver played, and where our system cast a vote on the O/U, we cashed in nine times, for a 64% win rate.
The UNDER is 6-4 over the Rockets last ten contests, while the Nuggets have split the O/U 5-5 most recently.