Detroit Pistons +3.5 at Indiana Pacers
We expect the Pistons will build on the impressive victory over the Miami Heat last night when they travel to Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis to take on the Pacers.
Despite coming into tonight's contest as four point road underdogs, our work sees Detroit winning outright -- likely by a comfortable margin. As is illustrated in the table below, one computer has the outcome of this evening's matchup being determined (in the Pistons's favor) by less than a point, while the other simulation routine gives Detroit a six point advantage. The quantitative element of our methodology likewise makes the Pistons six points better than Indy.
Our preferred power rankings approach lists the Pacers as 18th and the Pistons as 19th. However, Indiana plays poorly at home. This obervation is reflected by TeamRankings.com's assessment of Indy's average home court advantage: -2.5.
Also consider that the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in recent games, and 1-5 versus the number in their last six at home. On the other hand, the Pistons are 7-3 of late, 7-1 in their last eight out vs. sub-0.400 teams and 8-3 in their last 11 away games. Moreover, Detroit is 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Pacers and the road team has covered six of the last seven head-to-head matchups. These trends all support our wager on Detroit to cover.
Happy betting!!