Feb 3 NBA Action: Betting Total on Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons
The Heat face the Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills tonight. Detroit averages 99.8 PPG at home, while a typical away game for Miami sees them post 92 points.
This combined 192 points is well above the O/U line of 182.5. Consider also that tonight's contest will feature two of the leagues sub-par defenses (TeamRankings.com rates Detroit 16th and Miami 21st on the basis of overall defensive efficiency). This observation further supports the OVER.
Also, Detroit is among the top-ten teams in scoring off three-pointers. Thus, the Pistons' proficiency stroking the longball represents another potential means for the OVER to cash in this evening.
As is illustrated in the table below, the core of our handicapping methodology suggests meaningful value on the OVER. Our simulation work anticipates a combined total of 192-194, while our quant overlay calls for aggregate scoring of 188 points. When compared to the betting line, each factor independently conveys in excess of the five point value cushion we seek in order to justify our wagers.
Bottom line: our system's forecast fits with these two teams' lack of commitment to gaurding the ball, and solidly favors the OVER. We are wagering accordingly.