Utah Jazz +9 (-118) at Milwaukee Bucks
The 14-28 Utah Jazz will head to the BMO Harris Bradley Center this evening to face the 21-20 Milwaukee Bucks. The simulation element of our handicapping work expects Milwaukee to win by three or four points. The power-rankings based output though, suggests the Jazz should come out ahead by one point. Either way, we find taking Utah plus the near-double digit spread to be irresistable.
The Jazz have dropped seven of their last ten outings, but all these losses -- except the Jan 5th defeat by the Pacers -- are forgiveable. The Cavs, Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Thunder and Hawks are all playoff bound (to say the least). There is no shame is falling to this cohort.
In contrast to Utah's tough sledding of late, Milwaukee is 6-4 straight-up recently. However, rather than playing a 'Who's Who of the NBA Elite', the Bucks victories during this run have come against some of the worst teams in the league: the 76ers, Timberwolves, Knicks (twice), Hornets and Cavs (without Kevin Love and LeBron James). As such, we are discounting Utah's recent frost as well as Milwaukee's hot streak.
Tonight, we expect that Power Forward, Derrick Favors, and Centers, Rudy Gobert and Enes Kanter, will prove too much for Zaza Pachulia and the depleted Bucks frontcourt. Favors, for instance sports the second-highest player efficiency rating (PER) among all players in the in the game at his position (who have played at least 6:09 minutes per game). By this measure of overall productivity per minute, the 5th year big from Georiga Tech ranks just below Anthony Davis. Similarly, the Jazz's backup Center, Rudy Gobert out of France, ranks second in his position on PER. Utah's starting Center, Enes Kanter, a 4th year pro from Kentucky, is likewise above average as measured by PER, sorting 23rd of 61 qualified fives.
On the other hand, Bucks Center, Zaza Pachulia, rates below-average by PER (Pachulia's number is 14.36 -- average is 15). Further, Milwaukee's reserve Center, Larry Sanders, is unavailable while serving a league-issued suspension. Backup Milwaukee Power Forward, Ersan Ilyasova, who will likely start this evening, also boasts a better than average player efficiency rating, but should be outmatched by Favors.
Look for the Jazz's talented and girthy big men to wear down the understaffed Milwaukee backcourt. Kanter and Favors should be effective on offense as well as secure the advantage on the boards (which we think will translate to extra possessions and shots for Utah). Taking the road dogs +9.
Happy betting!!