Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs o193 (-117)
We outlined our rationale here for favoring the Utah Jazz to cover as big underdogs at San Antonio this afternoon. We believe that a play on the OVER fits well with the thesis that Utah is likely to muster adequate offensive output to keep the game reasonably close.
5Dimes breaks down the 193.5 total as 91 points for the Jazz and 102.5 for the Spurs. Our approach estimates the Spurs will record 102.4 points, almost exactly inline with the number. However, we see the Jazz posting 96.9, substantially above the betting line. Thus all of the value we perceive to be evident in the total line can be attributed to our view that Utah will have a better offensive game than the bookies expect.
Importantly, each component of our three factor model independently corroborates our outlook. As is shown below, our simulation-based work calls for a combined score of 196-200, while our power-rankings-based quant work sees about 202 total points.
Happy betting!!