Jan 18 NBA Action: Compelling Opportunity on Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic Total
Our work points to a very high probability that the combined total score falls under the betting line at 212 when the Thunder face the Magic at Orlando's Amway Center this afternoon. As is shown below, our simulation work anticipates a total in the range of198-200. A quantitative assessment indicates a similar outcome, forecasting an aggregate score of 197. As such, the under offers rarely seen value.
The Thunder put up 127 points against the Warriors Friday night, which might be influencing the total, but we believe that was a special situation. 11 days earlier, Golden State issued Oklahoma City a sound (117-91) thumping at the Warriors' Oracle Arena. Durant and Westbrook combined for a lowly 8-37 from the field as the Thunder, who are generally regarded as contenders, were embarrassedby by the up-and-comers from the Bay Area. In Friday's rematch, however, Westbrook responded with a fiery triple-double, consisting of 17 points, 17 assists and 15 rebounds (the starting OKC PG also registered four steals), and Durant shot 14-18 from the floor, for 36 points.
We think the over-production two days ago was merely a manifestation of the resolve of two of the greatest players in the game, determined to remind the world of how good they are. An average night for KD is more like 26 points on 9-16 from the field, stellar by any account, but not 14-18. And Westbrook has logged only 13 triple-doubles over his entire career, so he is by no means a machine in that way. A great post-game quote from Durant Friday night sums up the motivation for the outstanding offensive effort, but and conveys that the outing versus Golden State had special meaning:
"I think that's what I was put on this Earth to do is to score. I can do everything in the game. I feel like I can play defense, I can rebound, I can pass, but what I do is score. Sometimes, you've got to remind people what you do."
Also, supporting the case for the UNDER, the Magic's Tobias Harris (SF), who averages 18 per contest and is Orlando's second highest scorer, is questionable for tonight, as is Aaron Gordon (PF).