Jan 17 NBA Action: Playing Total on Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons
The Sixers at the Pistons stands out as a compelling totals play. As is illustrated in the following table, each of the three factors that comprise the foundation of our approach point to value betting the UNDER. The most conservative indication, from a simulation-routine, predicts a combined total of 192 -- three points less than the line of 195. The other sim program in our lineup anticipates 188 points of aggregate scoring, while our quantitative assessment similarly calls for 185 points.
The Sixers mustered an average night in terms of offensive productivity at home versus a depleted New Orleans Pelicans team Friday night. But without New Orleans star Power Forward, Anthony Davis, who missed the game with an injured toe, average was good enough. Philly won 96-81.
The 76ers' backup Guard, Tony Wroten, also sat out Friday, but his presence was not missed. Philadelphia Point Guard, Michael Carter-Williams, simply took (and made) more shots. Carter-Williams averages 15.5 points per contest but chipped in 22 points -- and 3 steals -- last night. Wroten, reportedly, will also miss tonight's action. We are not convinced that Carter-Williams can continue to pick up the slack (Wroten averages around 17 PPG, 5 RPG and 3 APG).
Detriot too is coming off a win last night -- at the Indiana Pacers. Brandon Jennings' 37 points was critical to the effort, though it was a tip-in by Andre Drummond in the waning seconds of the game that secured the victory Friday. On the season Jennings is averaging 15.5 PPG, about a point off his career average of 16.6. However, over Detroit's last dozen games, where the Pistons are 10-2 straight-up, Jennings has added better than 21 per contest. Still, 21 is a far cry from 37 NBA points -- even when facing a defense as soft as the Sixers'. As such, we would not be surprised to see Jennings scoring revert back toward historical averages, which will likely keep a lid on Detroit's offensive output.
Guards from both squads had strong games last night, which, we think, sets the stage for a letdown on offense tonight. Playing the UNDER.