Jan 14 NBA Action: Playing Total on Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
The Washington Wizards head to the United Center this evening to face the Chicago Bulls. The two computer simulation routines we employ point to a combined total in the 201-202 range. The third factor in our methodology is a quantitative measure, based on the Wizards average road score plus the Bulls typical home tally, adjusted by the strength of the defenses each team will face tonight. At around 203, this figure too points to a total score well north of the betting line. Our assessment of each schedule game, from a totals perspective, is pictured below.
Washington is likely flying high after having knocked off the Spurs on the road last night, and ending a losing streak to San Antonio that dates back to 2005 in the process. The Wizards are 4-3 this season playing on zero days rest, and their scoring has increased versus the prior night's output in the second game of back-to-backs in four instances out of seven. These trends establish a precedent for Washington's strong play to carry forward. Our work expects such an outcome tonight.
The Bulls own the ninth most prolific offense at home, averaging 105 points per game at the United Center. We think the Wizards' defense could shave a point or so off that number, but we are counting on a productive outing from Rose, Butler, Gasol and the crew. To support this expectation, consider that, in recent home games, Chicago put up 114 against Houston, pinned 115 on Portland and recorded 102 versus Golden State -- each of these teams sport top-tier defenses.
Bottom line: every factor in our system points to a combined total above 200 when the Wizards meets the Bulls tonight. This condition offers significant value versus the betting line at 195(ish). As such, we are enthusiastic backers of the OVER.