Toronto Raptors (-240) and Detroit Pistons +6.5 (-117)
As is shown below in tabular format, each of the three core indicators included in our NBA handicapping methodology point to the Raptors winning straight up, but failing to secure the cover as home favorites versus the Detroit Pistons tonight.
As our work calls for a Raptors victory by a margin of 1-4 points, we have constrcuted a spread bet that, if the Raptors are victorious by six points or less, yields 60% profit. Conversely, in the event that the final margin exceeds our six point envelope, we stand to lose 20%. The details of this dual-wager play for a hypothetical $100 total wager are illustrated below.
Detroit approaches tonight's contest as outright winners of eight of their last nine games and 5-0 ATS in their last handful of contests.
Toronto, on the otherhand, has dropped four of their last five matches both straight-up and versus the number, including a home loss to the Hornets Thursday. However, much of the Raptors recent malaise has occurred on the road, against good teams (i.e. the two of their four recent losses came at the hands of the Warriors and the Blazers). Further, the Raptors are still tied for sixth best home record in the league.
The win versus the struggling Celtics Saturday at Air Canada Centre might mark the start of a rebound for Raptors. However, while the Pistons are similar in record to Boston, Detroit is playing solid basketball of late -- especially on defense, and should therefore be expected to offer more resistance than did the Celts. Look for Toronto, the better team, to win a close one at home.
Happy betting!!