Miami Heat at Portland Blazers u198 (-125)
The Miami Heat head to the Moda Center at the Rose Quarter this evening to test the Portland Blazers. While our approach doesn't offer a strong indication of who will likley get the cover, betting the UNDER appears a compelling proposition.
The average and median scores posted by these teams over the 37 games they have each played this season suggests a total of 198 -- roughly inline with the current betting line at 197. However, we have taken to adjusting these raw figures to account for differences in points typically tallied on the road versus at home, and for the strength of the defenses each team will face. The fine-tuned numbers indicate a total in the 192-193 ballpark. This reduced sum, when compared to the betting line, offers greater than the 5 point cushion we desire in order to justify our activity.
In addition to our quantitative assessment, simulations also favor the UNDER. In synchronicity with the output of our quant work, the averaged output of the two simulation routines we employ point to 193.1 aggregate points scored this evening (one machine indicates 191.5 and the other forecasts 194.6).
Both Miami and Portland rank in the top ten for fewest points allowed -- but for very different reasons. On the one hand, in addition to not giving up very many points, Portland also sorts among the 10 best teams in the league in categories such as opponents field goal percentage, defensive rebounds and blocks -- all indications that the Blazers are strong defenders.
Conversely, per TeamRankings.com, Miami is 26th on the basis of overall defensive efficiency. Rather than menacing stopping ability, the Heat seem to limit their challengers' productivity through their slow tempo. At 92.5 possessions per game, Miami gets the ball more than 5 times fewer than the average NBA team, and ranks at the absolute bottom of the Association by this metric. Given the finite length of each game (ignoring the real, albeit slight, potential for an infinite number of overtime periods), the longer the Heat hold the ball, the shorter the time Portland has to score baskets.
Thus, as long as Miami is not lured into a run-and-gun contest (which we think is unlikely given the age and health of the Heat personnel and because this manner of play is not really the Blazers' modus operandi), we expect that their naturally slow style will limit Portland's number of possessions and, by extension, the number of buckets the Blazers can muster. Reciprocally, we expect Portland's defensive tenacity to hamper Miami's offensive productivity. As such, we are comfortable playing the UNDER, though we advocate buying the line up to 198, just as a bit of insurance.
Happy betting!!