Our NBA handicapping approach has identified three attractive moneyline plays for Monday, January 5, 2015.
Cleveland Cavaliers -160 at Philadelphia 76ers
First up, all of the factors we examine singularly point to the Cavaliers covering as favorites at the Philadelphia 76ers this afternoon -- without LeBron James and Krie Irving, who have both been definitively ruled out of this evening's action. Further, an aggregation of the inputs we employ implies an adequate margin for error (the composite suggests Cleveland is 11 points better than the Sixers; the spread though is CLE -4). However, one simulation program predicts Cleveland will win versus the number by an average margin of only three tenths of a point, leaving the Cavs virtually no breathing room. As we have indicated repeatedly in the past, we generally seek a five point cushion between our expected result and the betting line for each individual factor we incorporate in our system in order to justify taking a position. With the most conservative component of our methodology calling for a Cleveland win by 4.3 points, we get reasonably close to the five point (minimum) buffer we aim for across all factors when we discard the spread and focus on the moneyline -- as the other two elements of the composite both call for the Cavaliers to triumph by a double-digit margin.
Denver Nuggets -160 at Utah Jazz
Our composite indicator similarly picks the Nuggets over the Jazz by about 6 points, however, one input sees the Denver just missing the cover (but still winning absolutely). Again here, the individual components of our composite come reasonably close to providing the requisite five points of insulation when we abandon the spread and consider only absolute win/loss prospects.
Golden State Warriors -140 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
And finally, in tonight's marquee matchup, we are betting the Golden State Warriors to win at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. This game is sure to excite as the best scorer in the game takes on one of the best shooters. The Warriors are undoubtedly at the top of the heap in the NBA. More than a third of the way through the 2014-2015 season, Golden State has amassed only a handful of losses (GS is 26-5 to be precise). The Warriors are especially dominant in their own back yard, dropping only one of 14 games hosted at Oracle Arena. On average, Golden State wins by an average of 15+ points on their home turf. The Warriors also rank among the top 10 for fewest points allowed, and they hold their opposition to the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA. So while, any team with a player named Kevin Durant is going to have a scorer's chance at the "W" on any given night, Golden State is better on both sides of the ball, by the numbers.
Accordinly, all factors we consider give the Dubs the nod, expecting the win by somewhere between 3-10 points. In our estimation, the moneyline offers a sufficient probability (around 70%) of cashing in a ticket at the end of the evening.
We have included below assessment of each NBA contest scheduled for play today.
Happy betting!!