Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets u190
The computers predict Detroit will score 90-93 points and the injury-riddled Brooklyn Nets will muster 92, for a total in the 182-185 range when these teams meet this afternoon at Barclays Center.
Similarly, the adjusted median scores recorded by these teams this season indicate 91-91, or 182 total. [In this case, as Brooklyn is at home, the Nets' adjusted median score is the middle value of the final scores of their 12 homes games; similarly, Detroit's adjusted median is calculated based only on the 12 games the Pistons have played away from the Palace].
As is shown in the table, an examination of (unadjusted) median numbers or averages point to a much tighter game for the O/U -- perhaps too close for comfort. Injuries though will likely detract several points from the Net's total. Specifically, PG Deron William did not practice Saturday due to a right calf strain, and is listed as doubtful for today's action. If Williams can not go, the 10th year vets' Real Plus or Minus (RPM) of +1.99 implies his absence should cost the Nets about 4 points {1.99 points/100 possessions X [96.4 possessions/gm (BKN) + 96.8 possessions/gm (DET)]} (RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played; learn more here).
Brooklyn Center, Brook Lopez, is likewise listed as doubtful, and we suspect he will be sidelined for the eighth consecutive game today.
Bottom line: historical numbers support the output from the machines, especially when personnel is considered. The UNDER appears a solid play.
Happy betting!!