Dec 19 NBA Play: Betting Total on Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
The computers point to a combined scoring total in the 203-204 range when the Toronto Raptors meet the Detroit Pistons this evening at the Palace of Auburn Hills.
The Raptors average/median road scores of 107/110, plus the Pistons' 95 point average and median score at home suggest bettors might anticipate a total in the 202-205 ballpark, after the dust settles tonight. Thus the output of this approach slightly expands the range, but fits with the simulations-based message.
Also in defense of the OVER, neither of these teams are known for containing their opposition. At 13th, Toronto is around the middle of the pack when NBA teams are ranked based on points allowed. Further, the Raptors appear even less committed to defense when playing away from home than when at Air Canada Centre. To wit, on average the Raptors give up 105.4 points on the road versus just 94.5 per game at home. The Pistons are even lower on the list of teams sorted by points allowed (18th of 30). And counterintuitively, Detroit has allowed teams to score more points at the Palace than when they are travelling.
in summary, the computers, these teams' scoring tendencies this season and their defensive provlivities all point to a total north of 198. We are betting accordingly.