Dec 18 NBA Play: Betting Total on Milwaukee Bucks @ Sacramento Kings
One sim program we rely on points to a combined total score of 198.5 when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Sacramento Kings tonight -- well below the betting line at 206.
Supporting this selection, this season the Kings have posted a median score of 101 points at home, while the Bucks away median is 97 -- suggesting a total of 198. Using average instead of median figures similarly hints at a total of 197. Further, an examination of these teams historical scores excluding any consideration of whether they are at home or on the road indicates 199-200. These results are depicted in tabular format below.
Of note, Sacramento Kings rising star Center, DeMarcus 'Boogie' Cousins is likely to return to action this evening, after missing play over the last three weeks with viral meningitis. In DeMarcus' absence Sacramento scoring dropped: the Kings averaged 102 points per game through Cousins' last game, but only 98 thereafter. This slippage is understandable considering that Big 'Boogie' typically contributed 23.4 points per contest.
But the 6'11" Cousins is is an impact player on both ends of the court. While he was out, Sac's defense allowed opponents a median and average score of about 103 points per game. This compares to median/average scores of 95/98 PPG when the entire Sacramento roster was at the disposal then Head Coach Mike Malone (Malone was fired on December 14, after a three-game skid that included a loss to the Lakers and a home loss to the Pistons).
Thus, relative to the tendencies indicated in the chart above, we might expect the Kings to score a tad more than their 101 median at home (if Cousins is able to demonstrate offensive rhythm out the gate), however, a stronger defensive effort should at least offset the added impact Cousin's might have on on the Kings score. An estimate of the total in the 198-199 (or lower) ballpark seems reasonable to us.