Golden State Warriors -12.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves
Our computer-based approach to handicapping NBA games advocates betting the Golden State Warriors -12.5 at the Minnesota Timberwolves this evening. In one model's 10,000 simulations of this game, the Warriors won outright 87% of the time, and covered about in 60% of instances. The output from our system points to a comfortable cover for the Warriors, with a 3-8 margin above the spread.
Under first time head coach Steve Kerr, Golden State has amassed a record of 17 wins and only 2 losses straight up. More relevant to bettors though, the Warriors have been the best performing team in the league versus the number, leading backers to the cashier's window after 13 of their 19 games -- including a torrid 8-3 on the road.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves have struggled both straight up and versus the number. Their respective records are 4-15 and 7-12. Obviously, Kevin Love's late-summer departure for the greener pastures of Cleveland posed a material setback to Minnesota's near-term efforts, but injuries since the start of the season are also plaguing the team. Point Guard, Ricky Rubio, suffered a left ankle sprain at the Orlando Magic on November 7th and has been out since -- Rotoworld reports that Rubio is likely to miss about another month; Guard, Kevin Martin just underwent surgery on his wrist about two weeks ago and is likely to be sidelined for another 4-6 weeks; Center, Nikola Pekovic is also out of the lineup for an undetermined period due to perosnal reasons and/or injury. Perhaps as evidence of the impact of personnel issues, Minnesota lost by 8 to the previously winless Philadelphia 76ers days ago. The Timberwolves lack of depth is only exacerbated tonight as they prepare to host the best team in the league -- Guard, Mo Williams will also sit out Monday's action due to an ailing back.
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota imberwolves u214
In addition to picking the Warriors to cover, our computers also recommend playing the UNDER. We see somewhere around a 60% chance that the combined final tally is less than 214 -- simulations point to a total around 209. Further, a review of these teams scoring tendencies this season validates this selection. In 11 road games this year, the Warriors have posted a median score of 104, while Timbewolves median score at home is 101 (in 9 games). Thus, one might expect a median combined score in the 205 point ballpark when these teams meet. Using average instead of median scores hints at a total of 203, while numbers calculated based on all games (rather than the Warriors road record and the Wolves home record) suggest a total in teh range of 205-207.
Trends also endorse our play on the total. Consider that of the last 16 contests between these teams, 12 have gone under. And of the last 5 occasions where the Warriors faced the Wolves in Minnesota, the UNDER is a formidable 4-1.
In summary, we expect the best team in the NBA to easily dispatch third worst team (against the spread), who happen to be especially short-staffed at the moment. We are pairing our wager on Golden State to cover with a play on the UNDER, which is supported by historical scoring tendencies and trends, as well as by the computers.
Happy betting!!