Israel Adesanya -175 vs. Paolo Costa
The current -175 odds imply a 63% win probability for "The Last Stylebender", when Israel Adesanya faces Paolo Costa in the main event of UFC 253, in the promotion's return to Yas Fight Island, Abu Dhabi Saturday. We see value with Adesanya at this price, and are happy to back the favorite to win.
Starting with the premise that two random fighter each boast a 50% chance of success in the Octagon, and then adjusting only for Adesanya's and Costa's specific natural physical advantages, it becomes apparent why we are throwing support behind Adesanya. Further, the matchup of styles implies an additional boost to the probability of the Adesanya win, as far as we are concerned.
Regarding innate physical atrributes, Israel will lord an 8" reach advantage over his rival Saturday. MMA Sucka reports a study of 1,178 Nevada mixed martial arts events between 2003 and 2010 that found win rates approaching 70% for fighters with at least a 3.5" reach advantage.
Separately, but consistently, Fightnomics' Reed Kuhn examined 2,246 UFC fights from 1993 to 2013. Kuhn's analysis likewise identified a win rate in the vicinity of 70% for stand-up fighters with reach advantages of 6.5" or more (both Adesanya and Costa average ZERO takedown attempts per 15 minutes of action over their UFC careers, so Saturday's get-together indeed looks set to play out as a striking battle).
Thus, Adesanya's freakishly longer limbs alone imply a 10%+ edge for the Nigerian-born fighter.
Further, Adesanya's stance suggests an additional advantage. Fighters out of a conventional stance have not fared well facing switch stance fighters, generally speaking. Of the 746 fights in BetMMA's database, switch stance fighters prevailed over orthodox fighters 58% of the time.
So, Adesanya's versatility with regard to stance, relative to Costa's conventional posture, implies another 8% advantage.
Of note though, Costa has been thoroughly exposed to non-orthodox fighters. Paulo faced three southpaws (Romero, Hendricks and Bamgbose) and one switch fighter (McClellan) already, in only five engagements since joining the UFC. In fact, Oluwale Bamgbose, another fighter of Nigerian descent, held a reach advantage similar to Adesanya's, and fought out of a the switch stance when the two clashed at UFC 212, back in 2017.
Akin to what we expect Saturday, Bamglose's length and speed were problematic for Costa early. However, Borrachinha capitalized on what appeared to be a slip after a body kick in the second, and applied his renowned power to finish The Holy War Angel on the ground (depleted cardio too may have played a part in Bamglose's eventual wilt).
The Last Stylebender's recent encounter with Yoel Romero illustrates the discipline we expect Adesanya to bring into the Octagon, that separates him from lower level combatants like Bamglose. Romero entered that contest with an accumulated 11 KO/TKO's on 13 wins. Wary of Romero's power and wrestling prowess, Adesanya exhibited (extreme) patience when Soldier of God stood turtled-up, practically motionless, inthe center of the ring, apparently in an attempt to bait the champ comfortably into the range of Romero's heavy hands.
Adesanya did not bite. Instead, Izzy slowly and meticulously out-pointed Romero over the course of the full five rounds.
Without question, this approach made for an extremely boring fight. In fact, at several points fans booed the historic lack of action and even waved camera-based flashlights in protest. Despite public disapproval, Adesanya's tactic proved effective; he earned the unanimous decision win.
Fundamentally, volume striking is Costa's hallmark...and for good reason. Prior to going the distance with the same Yoel Romero last summer, Costa's "punches in bunches" approach delivered a string of 12 consecutive wins via 1st or 2nd round stoppage.
Costa averages roughly 15 significant strike attempts per minute, with a 53% connect rate. But as a potential offset to Costa's high work rate, we note that he is hittable. Though Costa has averaged about 8.5 significant strikes landed per minute of action over his career with UFC, he has eaten about 7 meaningful shots per 60 seconds. Further, Costa's striking defense rate is a meager 53%, below the 59% average for top-ten ranked UFC Middleweights.
Costa's full steam ahead approach will probably prove problematic against an athlete like Adesanya, who boasts above average defense (65% against strikes) and great counter-punching ability (owing largely to his length and speed, which allows Adesanya to fire shots from an array of angles and then retreat to outside of his competition's striking range). So while Costa is decidedly the bigger puncher of the two and the more active fighter, we expect Adesanya's elusiveness to somewhat negate this advantage.
According to BestFightOdds, Adesanya opened at -140 (58% implied odds) when talk of this fight first started to make the rounds a year ago. The line got as juicy as -200 (67%) in the early going, before drifting back down (in a stair step manner) to current levels. The trend in the moneyline in recent weeks reflects increasing interest on the favorite, so inclined bettors might want to get behind Adesanya sooner than later.
In addition to the steep (and steepening) odds on the champ's moneyline, we will also take a modest stab on the prop bet 'Adesanya to win by decision +250'.
For all the facets where Adesanya boasts superlative skills, power is not his calling card. Of eight events for the UFC, all wins, three have come inside the distance. And these stoppages occurred against particularly vulnerable foes. Rob Wilkinson's two career losses are both via KO; of Derek Brunson seven defeats, five resulted from KO/TKO; and Robert Whittaker has been stopped three times in five career losses.
On the other hand, Costa's chin is solid, as evidenced by the hard shots Romero landed last summer at UFC 241. Romero actually landed more significant strikes on Costa than he absorbed overall (125 to 118), but Costa did enough in the first two rounds to secure the decision.
Thus, we think Adesanya's length, speed/athleticism, diversity of strikes and counterpunching will ultimately guide The Last Stylebender to the win, but Costa's power, high-pressure style and rugged endurance will likely keep him in the fight throughout. We are comfortable laying the -175 with the champ. But, as we view a decision win for Adesanya as the (still reasonably priced) most probable outcome, we also like +250 for Adesanya by decision.
Happy betting!!