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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

Tips for Betting O/U's in Opening NBA Playoff Games

Updated: Sep 10, 2020

The first round of the NBA Playoffs have been kind to UNDER backers historically. Per the Bet Labs database, since 2005 the UNDER is 346-304-10 in opening post-season series, for a 54% cover rate and a 4% return on investment.

The profitability of this approach is improved by weeding out the most familiar competition--perhaps because offenses execute with less precision with only limited exposure to the opposition's defensive sets.

But whatever the reason, the UNDER is 244-204-7 in non-division play of the first round of the NBA playoffs. This record translates to a 55% win rate and a 6% ROI.

UNDERS have also been great bets in the first round playoffs where the spread is a bucket or less. We hypothesize that offenses need time to adjust to playoff situations where the competing teams are approximately evenly matched. This system has generated a historical 15% ROI.

Additionally, the relatively small subset of early playoff games where big talent disparities exist in inter-division action likewise proved particularly fertile for UNDER bettors. First round action featuring teams from different divisions and double-digit spreads finished under the betting total 64% of the time, good for a stunning 23% ROI.

With all that said, UNDER backers were tried on the opening day of the post-season, splitting the four-game slate 2-2. However, the tea leaves suggest a better day might be in store Tuesday, given a couple of particularly profitable setups.

First round playoff action featuring a short spread:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets u224.5

Big favorites in the first round of the playoffs:

  • Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks u225

Happy betting!!


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