The first round of the NBA Playoffs have been kind to UNDER backers historically. Per the Bet Labs database, since 2005 the UNDER is 346-304-10 in opening post-season series, for a 54% cover rate and a 4% return on investment.
The profitability of this approach is improved by weeding out the most familiar competition--perhaps because offenses execute with less precision with only limited exposure to the opposition's defensive sets.
But whatever the reason, the UNDER is 244-204-7 in non-division play of the first round of the NBA playoffs. This record translates to a 55% win rate and a 6% ROI.
UNDERS have also been great bets in the first round playoffs where the spread is a bucket or less. We hypothesize that offenses need time to adjust to playoff situations where the competing teams are approximately evenly matched. This system has generated a historical 15% ROI.
Additionally, the relatively small subset of early playoff games where big talent disparities exist in inter-division action likewise proved particularly fertile for UNDER bettors. First round action featuring teams from different divisions and double-digit spreads finished under the betting total 64% of the time, good for a stunning 23% ROI.
With all that said, UNDER backers were tried on the opening day of the post-season, splitting the four-game slate 2-2. However, the tea leaves suggest a better day might be in store Tuesday, given a couple of particularly profitable setups.
First round playoff action featuring a short spread:
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets u224.5
Big favorites in the first round of the playoffs:
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks u225
Happy betting!!