Ruiz for the win + a small flyer on the late finish: Andy Ruiz -375 & Ruiz in rounds 7-12 +225
We like the heavy favorite (no pun intended) in the main event of the September 4 matchup between Andy "The Destroyer" Ruiz and Luis "King Kong" Ortiz. We think Father Time is hot on Ortiz's trail, and, as we all know, the old man always captures his bounty (eventually).
Ortiz boasts a massive 10" reach advantage, per the FightNights.com Tale of the Tape. In theory, this edge suggests King Kong should be able to land shots while remaining far enough out of Ruiz's range to avoid incoming strikes.
However, Ruiz will lord a 10 1/2 year age advantage over 43 year old Ortiz. This is noteworthy because, as with reach, age has demonstrated a correlation with win percentage in combat sports (only inverse rather than direct). Older fighters go down after absorbing less punishment than is required to drop younger fighter's (far less, for really old fighters).
Further, Ruiz is the substantially bigger fighter, weighing in at 268 vs. 245 pounds for Ortiz. Additional power generated by this greater mass should likewise aid The Destroyer's cause Sunday.
Relatedly, Ortiz has recently demonstrated the kind of diminution that generally attends aged fighters. We interpret this happening to mean that the veteran combatant has begun his final descent. For instance, though King Kong finished Charles Martin in six in his most recent action (back in January), he was dropped twice in the process.
Facing a bigger, faster, now svelt Andy Ruiz, we do not think Ortiz will find the walk-off home run opportunity that Martin presented. Instead, we expect Ruiz to deploy his youth and speed to outbox Ortiz.
Further, while Ortiz has proven quite durable to date, King Kong is only getting older with each passing day. As such, the experienced pugilist grows increasingly vulnerable to an accumulation of head shots. As such, we would not be surprised to see Ruiz collect a stoppage in the later rounds.
Bottom line: We are laying the big chalk with Ruiz for the win, and we are taking a small stab at Ruiz by stoppage in the back half of the contest.
Happy betting!!