Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

August 26, 2017, 8:00PM Pacific

After wrestling with the idea for weeks, we have settled on backing Floyd Mayweather in his 50th professional prizefight, to be held this coming weekend versus MMA standout (but professional boxing newbie), Conor McGregor.

Despite the prevalence among boxing insiders of the perspective that McGregor is out of his league, we initially hesitated to take a side here, owing to two factors: 1) the daunting price associated with backing the favorite (OddsShark reports early odds for Mayweather to win of -2250), and 2) concerns over the extent to which the self-proclaimed TBE is preparing in earnest to do battle with the acclaimed mixed martial artist.

Our anxiety has since largely been assuaged, driven mainly by the massive correction the betting line has been subject to since the ridiculously off-putting opening levels were posted. As of the time of this writing, Mayweather can be had for -400 at Bovada.lv. To be clear, this is no bargain in absolute terms, and we pass on bloated levels in most cases. But, considering Mayweather's opponent will not have engaged in a single amateur or professional boxing match prior to Saturday night's showdown, -400 strikes us as shorter odds than the situation warrants.

To make the point about relative value embedded in the current line, consider that Mayweather's last ten bouts (all against bona fide professional boxers) have averaged a closing line of -760. The current -400 level implies the legend's probablity of besting McGregor is only as good as the likelihood, before their 2010 get-together, that Mayweather would dispatch Shane Mosley, or Arturo Gatti five years earlier.

But Conor McGregor is no Shane Mosley! When Shane met Floyd seven years ago, Mosley was the 2nd best welterweight in the business and 3rd best pound for pound fighter in the world, according to Ring Magazine rankings. By then, Shane was also a welterweight champ, with 52 professional and a staggering 262 amateur contests under his belt. In short, Sugar Shane's years of singular dedication to the craft earned shorter odds against Mayweather. We cannot say the same for McGregor.

Separately, we have observed several indications that Mayweather's dedication to training camp is less than absolute. Showtime's All Access series, which purports to offer insight into the fighters' lives in the weeks leading up to the event, has been conspicuously light on footage of Floyd in the gym. In past editions, documentation of the supreme boxer's other-worldly capacities has been a staple.

We are also aware of Floyd's commentary to the effect that training camp is too grueling for his body to endure at this stage of his life, which likewise calls into question the rigor of his preparation. We have become convinced though that such posturing is merely Mayweather the promoter, trying desperately to bridge the gap in the minds of the paying public between his own superlative skillset and Conor's perhaps merely serviceable abilities as a boxer.

For one, we think a genuine dislike of the Irish brawler is fueling a training regimen worthy of Mayweather's reputation as among the hardest working fighters in boxing. Floyd indicated on a recent appearance on Jimmy Kimmel that the apparent disdain be holds for McGregor is no act. Mayweather later suggested, in an interview with Stephan A. Smith, that a comment during the press tour perceived to convey racial disrespect lies at the root of his animosity toward McGregor.

Or perhaps the greater motivational factor compelling Floyd to train diligently is the branding value of his '0' (as in zero losses). FiveThirtyEight reports that Mayweather's claim to the title "The Best Ever" rests largely on his undefeated record as a differentiator from contenders such as Muhammad Ali, Joe Louis or Sugar Ray Robinson, each of whom have delivered more exciting memories to fight fans. It, therefore, seems reasonable to ponder how Mayweather might be remembered relative to other fighters of even his era if he loses to a non-boxer. We are sure Floyd would prefer to spare fans the responsibility for such ruminations.

So while we concede advantages to McGregor in usually important areas such as age, reach, size and raw power, in this instance, we estimate the gap in technical ability is so vast that Conor's strengths will be nullified. Moreover, we think Floyd is quite motivated to not only beat McGregor, but to do so emphatically -- to reimburse the public for the disappointment that was Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, to preserve his pristine legacy and, as importantly, to punish the brash Irishman for his remarks thought to be over-the-top.

In the face of a multi-national hype tour aimed at billing this event as the biggest in the history of the sport, and even Floyd's own sometimes almost self-deprecating remarks, we think Mayweather can have an easy night Saturday, landing at will while absorbing less punishment than was doled out by Mosley in 2010. As such, we are backing the favorite at -400 -- a steep price in absolute terms, but seemingly a value, relatively speaking.

Happy betting!!