Betting Defenses Come to Play in this Central Division Showdown: u220.5 (-115)
The Pacers will host the Cavs in New Year's Eve NBA action, after falling to the Celtics two days earlier, in a contest where both squads exceeded the implied team totals. After this most recent romp with Boston, the Pacers O/U is 3-1 on the young season.
These circumstances favor the UNDER Thursday, as, counterintuitively, home teams with a tendency toward the OVER have proven solid UNDER plays early in the regular season. This system has delivered a 10% return since 2005 and is 10-5 so far this year.
We expect the success of this approach owes to a general over-optimism among the betting public, which drives action on the OVER. We suspect, however wrong, the public is more likely to be lulled into betting on higher scores for teams that have recently posted big numbers.
(This strategy likewise highlights the Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets u232 this evening.)
But in addition to the system described above, we also note that divisional action involving home favorites of more than two buckets, but less than double-digits, have also tended decidedly toward the UNDER.
Teams from the same division are more familiar with each other as a result of more games played, as mandated by NBA scheduling criteria. Thus, one might expect divisional games to be lower scoring events, if for no other reason than teams have seen (and have had time to engineer adjustments to) the tricks in the other's bag.
The moderate spread constraint might indicate that differences in ability between the competing teams is not extreme, also hinting at a greater ability to check each other's offense.
(The Knicks @ Raptors u217 from today's NBA slate is likewise triggered by this system.)
Bottom line: We observe sufficient historical context to compel us to get down on the UNDER when Cleveland travels to Indiana Thursday. We are wagering accordingly.
Happy betting!!