Betting against NBA post-season underdogs on winning streaks has proven solidly profitable, historically, versus teams lacking recent playoff experience.
This simple system outlined in the graphic above has delivered a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) 32% long-term return on investment, with cover rates south of 50% in only two years during the examination period.
Firther, this system is 21-7 versus the number in first meetings.
We suspect the profitability of this angle owes to a public penchant for underestimating squads experiencing some manner of playoff drought and overweighting recent strong play by winning teams.
In the 7-8 Western Conference play-in matchup Tuesday, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who won the final three games of the regular season, are taking eight points from the L.A. Lakers (the Lakers missed the post- season last year and were bounced by the Suns in the first round the year before).
We expect this situation represents a solid 'sell high' opportunity for Minnesota and we are comfortable laying the chalk with L.A., who is 9-2 SU in thier last 11 (though only 6-5 ATS).
Relatedly, we regard news that Rudy Gobert has been suspended for throwing a punch at a teammate, and that Minnesota's starting small forward, Jaden McDaniels, is also out after breaking his hand (by punching a wall in frustration) as support for our fade Minnesota thesis...it seems the Wolves are self-destructing before the action even commences Tuesday. Also regarding personnel, Karl Anthony Towns is listed as QUESTIONABLE as of the time of this writing.
Happy betting!!