After falling one win short of an appearance in the NBA Finals last year, the Heat rattled off a 4-1 SU run to cap off their regular season and claim the top seed in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. As such, Miami is a win away from an official berth in the 2023 playoffs. The Heat's post-season ambition hinges on Tuesday's contest with Atlanta, who they eliminated in five games in the opening round of last year's post-season proceedings. The Hawks limped into the #8 spot in the east this year after dropping the last two games of their regular season.
These teams' recent trends offer insight into how bettors should position for this first action since the end of the regular season. We provide below an angle that endorses backing the home favorite for the cover at Miami's Kaseya Center this afternoon.
Explaining the success of this angle, we hypothesize that teams better suited to win (and cover) in the playoffs start to gear up for the post-season in the latter stages of the regular season. As such, how teams finish the regular season is at least somewhat indicative of the likelihood of post-season success out of the gate. Further, we think recent playoff experience acclimates teams to the increased intensity of post-season action.
This system has delivered a stellar 34% long-term return on investment, statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level, and covered less than 50% of the time in only two seasons since 2005-06.
Happy betting!!