NBA Playoffs: ECF Game 5, History Rhymes
Betting: Boston Celtics -3 -110 vs. Miami Heat and u214 -110
Despite a 3-1 deficit in the series, our computer simulation work calls for the Boston Celtics to earn the cover as 3-point favorites against the Miami Heat in game 5 of the NBA 2020 Eastern Conference Finals. We are betting accordingly, as we note several historical observations that corroborate this expectation.
Generally speaking, favorites tend to cover game 5's. Since 2005, chalk layers have cashed in at a 55% clip in post-season fifth meetings (4-2-1 ATS this season).
Further, favorites are 16-10 ATS in the Conference Finals.
Even favorites down in the series have been a solidly profitable 17-12-1 ATS over this timeframe.
We also like UNDER, given the strong historical precedent. In the earlier rounds of the post-season, non-division UNDERs have collected at a 56% rate since 2005.