The Lakers and Nuggets open the 2022-23 Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. We are backing the Lakers for the road cover in what we expect to be a barn-burner. That is, in addition to Los Angeles beating the number, we anticipate aggregate scoring to exceed the betting total. Supporting our perspective for the O/U, we cite the angle indicated in the following graphic.
This system has generated a statistically significant 40% long-term return on investment, with a cover rate below 50% in only one season during the examination period.
We believe the consistent success of this angle owes to an absence of sufficient defensive intensity among lower seeded teams (i.e. away teams) that lack postseason pedigree in the early games of such series.
In accordance with the signal triggered for this system, we are betting on the OVER for the first two games of this series in Denver.