In the NBA postseason, betting flows have proven very informative at extremes. When sharp and square bettors alike are in sync and highly convicted regarding an expected ATS outcome, they have been right a lot more often than not.
This simple system has delivered a 30% return on investment, statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, and has demonstrated remarkable consistency over the limited span for which we have betting flows data. In fact, the angle's worst season (2015-16) amassed an 8-8 ATS record, and only a nominal loss. Respectable gains (at the vey least) were the result in all other years.
Further, at a 95% confidence level, the 70% cover rate proved statistically significantly different than the 52.4% win rate versus the number required to breakeven (assuming the standard -110 juice).
We suspect more sophisticated information gathering and dissemination methodologies, as the internet has matured and technology advanced, account for this consistent success.
In Sunday, April 16, 2023 action, the top seed in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks, kick off their series against the Miami Heat at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are currently supported by 78% of spread bets and 70% of dollars staked versus the number. As such the criteria for this system are met (as of the time of this writing).
The caveat for this approach is that flows are subject to change as bets continue to pour in. This is to say that triggers are subject to revocation until right up to tip-off. Would-be adherents should place wagers as late as possible to increase the likelihood that the system's thresholds are met when betting closes. Of course though, the risk of delaying bets on darling teams is the possibility of worse lines. However, this system is graded based on closing spreads, and has been highly profitable in spite of line movement.
Happy betting!!