The Los Angeles Lakers proved too much for the Golden State Warriors in the first game of the second round of the 2022-23 Western Conference Playoffs. Despite entering the game as six-point underdogs, the purple and gold won outright by five. Per the graphic below, history suggests the defending champs are likely rebound and collect the win and cover in game 2 action. Accordingly, we are laying the chalk with the Warriors Thursday.
The angle described above has delivered a statistically significant 21% long-term return on investment at the 95% confidence level, despite its small sample size.
We believe this system works because the talent disparity between opposing teams is greatest early in the playoffs, so home teams in game 2, generally higher seeds, are more than capable of redeeming themselves after losses.
Happy betting!!