Backing Grizzlies' momentum and defense: Memphis -4 & u225
Though the Grizzlies fell to the Warriors to close out the regular season, Memphis rattled off a five-game win streak just before, solidifying their position in the NBA Play-in Tournament. Memphis will face the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday in the 9/10 matchup, for a chance to advance to the playoffs.
At odds with the Grizzlies' strong finish, the Spurs closed the year with a whimper, going 2-10 in their last dozen, with four straight losses coming at the tail end of this run.
These opposing near-term momentum trends set the stage for the Grizz cover, we think...
Teams that finished the season winning most/all of their last four have proven great bets facing teams that won no more than half of their four most recent contests.
This system has delivered a 27% long term return on investment, with only three losing seasons since 2004.
Fundamentally, we expect the Grizzlies defense to give the Spurs fits. Memphis ranks 7th in the NBA by defensive efficiency, holding opposition to more than a point per 100 possessions below the League norm, on average. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Spurs were outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions facing teams whose defense ranked among the NBA's top tercile. This hardship translated to a 7-19 SU record and 11-14 (44%) ATS for San Antonio, including a 1-2 tally facing these Grizzlies.
The Sixers, Heat and Grizzlies are the three NBA teams this season with elite defenses but only middle-of-the pack offenses. The Spurs struggles have proven particularly pronounced versus such teams. San Antonio's aggregate differential is -12.4 points per 100 possessions against these squads, good for 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS records.
Separately, we expect the combined score to come in below the O/U line.
Historically, divisional action featuring home teams on UNDER streaks have tended toward the UNDER.
This system has delivered a highly statistically significant 10% return on investment since 2004, with only four losing seasons. The regular showing of 21-16-2 this year is perfectly consistent with this long-term success.
Worth noting, the tendency for home UNDERs to beget another UNDER has proven even more powerful post-season, delivering a 20% historical return on investment (statistically significant at the 10% confidence level), covering 60% cover of the 75-game sample.
Happy betting!!