Fade three teams that rolled into Allstar break: Back the Nets, Hawks & Warriors
The Boston Celtics stumbled versus the Detroit Pistons most recently, but rattled off nine straight wins prior to this most narrow upset loss. Similarly, behind the excellence of DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine, the Chicago Bulls claimed five straight wins and are tied with the Heat for best record in the East honors. And though the Trail Blazers sit in the tenth spot in the West, currently on the fringe of the Play-In Tournament qualification, Portland is undefeated since trading CJ McCollum. These teams all play Thursday to usher in the return of the NBA season, in the wake of Allstar weekend action.
We have observed that, in the first game after the NBA Allstar break, fading teams with positive momentum heading into the pause versus quality opposition has proven a source of considerable profit in the past:
In the first post-Allstar game action, betting against teams that won at least three of their four previous games has delivered consistent profits when they face squads that made the prior postseason.
This system has submitted less than a 50% cover rate in only one season since 2005-06 and has been good for a 26% aggregate return. The following chart illustrates the return on investment generated in each individual season since 2005-06. Note the consistency of profitability earned over the years.
For Thursday, the following three plays are triggered, on two dogs (one away and one at home) and one road favorite, per this angle:
The Boston Celtics @ The Brooklyn Nets +4.5
The Atlanta Hawks +4 @ The Chicago Bulls, and
The Golden State Warriors -6.5 @ The Portland Trail Blazers
Worth mentioning, the Warriors lost to the Lakers in the Play-In Tournament last year, in the first season of the League's amended rules governing qualification for the postseason. The system described above regards teams that see any action after the conclusion of the regular season as participating in the playoffs. Only time will tell if this broad interpretation is warranted. As such, we regard laying the points with Golden State as the most speculative of the prescribed wagers, and though we are indeed getting down on Steph and the boys from the Bay, a pass here is justifiable.
Happy betting!!