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With their decisive victory in the Eastern Conference Finals game 7 in Boston, the 2022-23 Miami Heat managed to avert the infamy associated with being the first and only team to be eliminated from the NBA Playoffs after assuming a most commanding 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven series. By dispatching the Celtics, the eighth-seed of the Eastern Conference has earned the privilege of competing with the top team in the West, the Denver Nuggets, for the coveted Larry O'Brien trophy, and title of NBA Champion.
But just as Boston's effort to recover from an 0-3 deficit was forsaken by history, the probability of a bottom seed winning the championship is equally bleak...there is absolutely no precedent for such an event. The 1998-99 Knicks are the only eighth seed to make an appearance in the NBA Finals. New York suffered a gentleman's sweep at the hands of the Tim Duncan and David Robinson-powered San Antonio Spurs.
This factoid informs our bias regarding the outcome of this last series of the NBA Playoffs. However, the -375 moneyline for the Nuggets, if not mispriced, is prohibitively expensive. Instead, we will take our chances against the spread on a game-by-game basis.
The Zig-Zag Theory, developed by the legendary bettor, Tony Salinas, entails backing home teams in NBA postseason series openers, and then backing the loser of each game that follows for the cover. While our backtests do not validate the efficacy of this system broadly, the Zig-Zag Theory has proven exceptionally profitable to kick off the NBA Finals. As such, we are siding with Denver as hosts to Miami in game 1 action on June 1, 2023.
The angle indicated in the graphic has delivered a 62% long-term return on investment, and has suffered losing seasons in only three of the 17 years during the examination period in which plays were triggered.
Further, the results of a one-proportion z-test suggest the exceptionally high cover rate is statistically significantly different (i.e. higher) than the 52.4% breakeven win rate, assuming the standard vigorish, at the 95% confidence level—despite the modest sample size. As such, we believe it highly unlikely that the profitability of this system owes merely to chance.
The betting spread for game 1 of the Heat at Nuggets opened at Denver -8.5, just after Miami beat Boston in game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. On the basis of the strong historical precedent in favor of home teams versus the number in the Finals opener, we are laying the chalk with the Nuggets.
Happy betting!!