The current iteration of the Brooklyn Nets appears thoroughly outmatched against the star-studded Philadelphia 76ers in the 2022-23 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference 3-6 matchup. As double-digit dogs both times, Brooklyn dropped the first two games of the series by an average 16 point margin (in Philadelphia). The Nets are taking 4.5 at home in game 3.
We are not willing to bet that things will get any better for Brooklyn against the full game spread Thursday. In fact, we are backing the Sixers to beat the number, as we did for game 1, on the strength of the angle described here). However, the graphic below details why we think the Nets can muster a good first half in game 3.
The 63% cover rate for the system detailed above has translated to a 20% long-term return on investment and has proven statistically significantly different than the 52.4% presumed breakeven cover rate at the 95% confidence level.
We suppose this angle works because winless teams heading into the third game of a postseason series come out swinging in an all-out effort to avoid the death knell 0-3 deficit (from which no team has ever recovered). Squads give all they have from this position, which is generally enough to beat the first half number. Aiding their efforts, teams with commanding 2-0 leads might also take their feet off the gas early in game 3, secure in the knowing that they sport a 93% probability of advancing to the next round based on their work in the two previous meetings.
For Thursday, April 20, 2023 NBA action, the Nets +1.5 1H and the Warriors -3.5 -115 1H both fit the criteria for this system. We endorse both wagers.
Happy betting!!