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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NBA Betting Guide: Tailing sharps on the OVER

Updated: Jan 20, 2023

The most shrewd bettors getting down on the OVER has contained information historically. Casual wagerers have been well served to tail this most informed cohort of gamblers in this situation.

This simple angle delivered a statistically significant 12% hypothetical return on investment over the lookback period, and its worst season delivered a benign 50% cover rate.

Thus, this circumstance appears to represent a spot where big money players appear to have an informational edge...and we are happy to exploit their knowledge.

For Saturday, January 7, 2023, 53% of the roughly 3,500 O/U tickets tracked by The Action Network on the Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls are backing higher than expected aggregate scoring, while 82% of dollars staked support the OVER. The lopsided handle pressured the number 3.5 points above the opening level. As such a play on the OVER is triggered, per this system.

The tricky thing though is that this system's plays may be rescinded if heavy action comes in on the UNDER. In fact, one never truly knows for sure that a pick is valid until just before tip-off. However, in this instance, we deem it pretty unlikely that UNDER-backers show up in sufficient masse to negate today's indication.

Happy betting!!

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