History hints that quality teams do not stay down for long...at least versus the number. In fact, a convincing win after a losing stint commonly indicates a righting of the ship underway. Bettors have been rewarded for backing teams in this position to cover the spread in their next action.
This simple angle has proven good for a statistically significant 22% hypothetical return on investment over the examination period, and has suffered cover rates south of 50% in only two seasons.
We expect the success of this system owes to the combination quality teams' (as proxied by recent playoff experience) physical talent and mental toughness, which situates them well to bounce back following a disappointing stint. When such teams are favored following a big margin win, bookmakers might still be inclined to shade lines the other way, to induce bettors to take the flyer (as research suggests Joe Public is likely to overweight recent losing streaks in handicapping current action).
The Jazz, who were thwarted in the 2021-22 playoffs by Luka and the Mavs, beat the Rockets in Houston by 17 on Thursday, Jan 5, 2023. This outcome snapped a five-game skid. Now, Saturday the the Jazz are laying 1.5 to the hosting Bulls. We expect Utah to build on the success achieved two days earlier.
Happy betting!!