Teams on home stands of four of more games that have won no more than one of their last four have proven exceptional bets versus squads from the opposing conference that participated in the prior postseason...
This simple angle has proven good for a 21% return on investment since the 2005-06 season and has suffered covered rates south of 50% in only two seasons since 2005-06.
Explaining the success of this system, we conjecture that the betting public tends to shun teams that have struggled recently--particularly against quality opposition (as indicated by a slot in the last playoffs). In response, bookmakers shade lines, creating value with teams in tough patches. Further, we believe squads are more likely to experience offensive success versus teams from opposing conferences, as a result of a lack of familiarity with offensive schemes (NBA scheduling rules require that only 30 of 82 regular season games pit teams against the other conference). Finally, Boudreaux, Sanders & Walia (2015) observed that sympathetic crowds were associated with meaningfully heightened probabilities of winning, which also boosts the likelihood of the home cover.
As of January 3, 2023, the Charlotte Hornets are 10-28 straight up so far (good for the second worst record honors in the Eastern Conference), after a 1-4 run in their last five. In their fourth straight at Spectrum Center, the Hornets are slated to host the 23-13 Memphis Grizzlies, the second best team in the West, on Wednesday, January 4th. This matchup checks all the boxes for this system. Accordingly, we are backing Charlotte for the ATS win, but we recommend waiting until Gordon Hayward's status has been declared (Charlotte's starting small forward is listed as doubtful at present; the line might widen a bit if our expectation proves correct and Hayward is unavailable for Wednesday's action).
Happy betting!!
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