NBA Betting Guide: Long cover streaks
We have observed empirical evidence that the hot hand effect is real in NBA betting markets. This is to say that teams that have experienced recent success against-the-spread are likely to continue to beat the number.
Albeit rare, NBA teams on regular season cover streaks of nine or more games tend to cover their next game...
Siding with teams on extended ATS win streaks has produced a 25%(!) return on investment back to 2004-05, and has delivered cover rates below 50% in only two of those years. And while the 69 game sample size is fairly small, the impressive results proved statistically significant at better than the 95% confidence level, which offers a solid indication that the this observation is not merely due to chance.
Where the rubber meets the road, the Orlando Magic will host the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday, December 27th. The Magic are 8-1 SU and 9-0 versus the number most recently, while the Lakers are riding a four-game straight-up losing streak and are on a five-game skid ATS. This system endorses Orlando for the cover and we are betting accordingly.