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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NBA Betting Guide: Hit the road, Jack

Updated: Jan 11, 2023

In certain situations, traveling after long home stands is just what the doctor ordered. We detail below a system that highlights specific opportunities where road favorites coming off extended stints as the host team are likely to collect the cover.

This angle's 63% cover rate translates to a statistically significant 22% long-term return on investment. Further, this system has delivered cover rates below 50% in only two seasons since 2004-05.

In approaching 26,000 regular season NBA games since 2004-05, favorites won about 69% of the time. We theorize that the a good deal of the SU success underdogs experienced owes to lapses in mental acuity by the better team, in this case, as squads on long home streaks get too relaxed. The specter of high expectations in a more hostile environment, especially after a disappointing showing, offers sufficient motivation for these teams to redouble their focus, we believe.

In Sunday, January 8, 2023 action, a play on the Philadelphia 76ers is triggered. In their third straight at Wells Fargo Center, Philly lost by 14 to the Bulls Friday, despite being favored by five. The Sixers, without Joel Embiid and P.J. Tucker, are currently giving 5.5 to the Detroit Pistons. Thus, this situation checks all the boxes for this system, and we are laying the chalk with the Beard.

Happy betting!!


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