We detail herein an angle for NBA action that has delivered statistically significant long-term profit (at the 95% confidence level). For Friday, this system highlights the Brooklyn Nets as ever so slight favorites at the Toronto Raptors. Accordingly, we are laying the solitary point and siding with the KD and Kyrie and the crew for the cover.
In regular season NBA action featuring teams that both appeared in the prior playoffs, fading home dogs that won and covered no more than one of their last five has proven good for a hypothetical 13% return on investment since 2005-06...
Explaining the consistent profitability of this system, we believe that difficulties among teams formerly of playoff caliber signal that such squads have lost a step. Quality teams (i.e. chalk layers that likewise appeared in the last postseason) are generally able to exploit this regression.
Toronto's 48-34 SU record last season secured the fifth seed in the 2021-22 playoffs (the Raptors were bounced by the Sixers in six in the first round). But, after dropping three straight SU/ATS and four of their last five, Toronto is a less promising 13-15 SU/14-14 ATS through the first third of the new year. The dinos are slated to host the Nets Friday as nominal underdogs.
On the other hand, Brooklyn has rattled off four straight wins and collected victories in eight of their last ten. The Nets have also covered two in a row (including an outright win at the Pacers this past Saturday, from the position of eight-point dogs). We are betting this recent success continues at Toronto Friday.
Happy betting!!