In the regular NBA season, road teams that appeared in the last playoffs and that are taking double digits following an underdog ATS loss have historically proven strong bets facing opposition off ATS wins...
This system has delivered a (statistically significant) hypothetical 16% return on investment since the 2005-06 season, and has suffered cover rates below 50% in only three seasons.
Rationalizing the consistent success of this angle, we hypothesize that the casual betting public's recency bias drives support the way of favorites off ATS wins over dogs that failed to cover their last action -- even despite the offsetting effect of bloated spreads. Consistent with this premise, Paul & Weinbach (2016) document the public's disposition toward favorites, an advantage for big underdogs, and an edge for fading positive momentum.
The Charlotte Hornets, whose season ended in the Play-In Tournament last year (which, for our purposes, constitutes a postseason appearance) are slated to take 11 from the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday, January 6, 2023, after dropping three in a row and five of their last six (SU/ATS). The Bucks have rattled off consecutive wins/covers and are 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four. As such, a play on the Hornets is triggered.
Happy betting!!