Through 22 games of the 2022-23 regular NBA season, the Milwaukee Bucks boast the fourth best ATS win rate in the League. The Bucks, anchored by the superstar ability of Giannis Antetokuompo and company, will host the Orlando Magic Monday afternoon as 9.5 point favorites (the Magic, by the way, sport the fifth-worst record in the NBA versus the number).
As counterintuitive as it may seem, history is clear that objective bettors should take the points with the Magic in this matchup featuring among the most and least bettor-friendly teams in the NBA.
After the first quarter of the regular season, backing squads with ATS win rates no better than 40% has proven consistently profitable versus teams from the same conference that covered at least 60% of their games...
This angle has been good for a statistically significant 12% return on investment since 2004-05 and has suffered cover rates below 50% in only two seasons.
The justification for this success owes, we think, to the betting public's enduring tendency to extrapolate near-term events into the indefinite future. In betting markets, this behavior, known as recency bias, often manifests through excessive action on covering teams over teams that struggled versus the number, despite the normalizing effect of the betting spread.
In reality though, once teams have shaken off rust and found their form (i.e. after the first 20 games), reversion toward the average 50% cover rate is most likely following spates of extreme ATS performance (either good or bad).
In addition to the Magic at the Bucks, the Dallas Mavs -3.5 vs. the 14-9 ATS Phoenix Suns likewise fits the criteria for this system Monday. Accordingly, we are also backing Dallas, the absolute worst team in the NBA ATS (6-15-1), for the cover.
Happy betting!!