In general, backing NBA favorites off narrow upset losses has proven substantially profitable versus the first half line in many matchups between quality teams. Bettors would be well served to consider this admonition in capping games under these circumstances.
Specifically, in regular season NBA action featuring squads that both appeared in the prior postseason, siding with favorites to beat the first half number after upset losses by no more than a bucket has proven good for a 16% return on investment back to 2005-06...
This system has suffered cover rates below 50% in only four seasons over the examination period.
Explaining the consistent profitability of this angle, we theorize that quality teams (as indicated by recent playoff berths) suffer upset losses primarily as a result of lapses in focus. But, these squads sport both the desire and ability to right the ship following negative surprise outcomes. This resolve is intensified versus other quality teams (who are likewise talented enough to dole out unwanted surprise outcomes).
As six-point favorites, the Miami Heat lost to the visiting Indiana Pacers by three on Friday, December 23, 2022. After a couple of days off for Christmas, the Heat are back in action Monday, laying two to the Minnesota Timberwolves (Miami was dispatched by the Boston Celtics last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Grizzlies sent Minnesota packing in round 1 of the prior postseason). The aforementioned system endorses the Heat for the bounce-back cover in first half action.
Happy betting!!