Betting the Heat maintain home court with a win and cover at FTX Arena Wednesday: Miami -7.5
We like the Miami Heat to cover game 2 of their second round matchup versus the Embiid-less Philadelphia Sixers. This forecast flies in the face of guidance offered by Tony Salina's Zig-Zag Theory, as Miami after won by 14 and easily covering the 7.5 point spread in the first contest, but our reading of history supports our thinking.
In playoff matchups between teams that both saw postseason action a year ago, favorites on straight up winning streaks of three or more games have proven great bets.
Before handling Philly a couple of nights ago, Miami won the last two games of their opening round series to finish the Atlanta Hawks in five. Thus, the Heat have tasted (SU) victory in each of their last three outs.
This system's last two picks were duds, but it is still 3-2 ATS so far this year. Looking at a longer term though better demonstrates this strategy's value. This angle has delivered a statistically significant 19% return on investment since 2005-06, including a 13-7 ATS showing in second round game 2's.
Worth noting, while Miami is backed by 55% of spread bets and 69% of dollars wagered versus the number for this contest, the spread has tightened from the Heat earlier today -9 to -7.5 currently. Given that there is no news on the injury front to justify this slippage (we knew The 76er's Embiid and the Heat's Kyle Lowry would be sidelined, and Miami's PJ Tucker was actually upgraded to probable this afternoon), the implication is that sharp action is coming in on James Harden and his squad of underdogs.
This same system also highlights the Phoenix Suns for the home cover in the second contest of their second round series with the Dallas Mavericks later tonight. Like the Heat, the Suns also won the last two games of their first round matchup and the game 1 of their current series. Accordingly, we are backing both favorites this evening.
Happy betting!!