We have observed that siding with quality teams on extended home stands after upset losses has proven substantially profitable in regular season NBA action, over the long-term.
Backing teams that 1) made the prior post-season, 2) are playing at least their fourth straight game from the comfort of home, and 3) are coming off an upset loss has been good for a 17% return on investment back to 2005-06 (statistically significant at the 95% confidence level)...
Explaining the consistent success of this system (the angle has suffered losing seasons only four times between 2005-06 and 2021-22), we believe favorites generally lose outright as a result of lapses in mental acuity, not because of deficiencies in talent. As such, following surprise defeats, we conjecture that quality teams (as indicated by recent playoff berths) tend to refocus, making covers more likely in games that follow such happenings. The support of hometown fans (which pressures refs to make friendly calls), exacerbates this potential, in our thinking.
In their fifth straight at their Vivint Arena, the Jazz will be laying -4.5 to the Warriors in the first half in Wednesday, December 7, 2022 NBA action. The Blazers just stunned the Jazz two nights ago with a win by five, despite being slated as five-point underdogs. This situation fits the criteria for the aforementioned system. Accordingly, we are backing Utah against the first half line.
Happy betting!!