NBA 1H Betting Guide: Good teams on SU/ATS skids
After five straight SU/ATS losses, we think the Clippers' home win/cover versus the Mavs Tuesday is the start of some manner of right-footing. As history suggests the best team in L.A. is likely to beat the number again, as slight favorites hosting the Nuggets on January 2023's Friday the 13th, we are betting accordingly.
To be clear, this angle pertains first half lines only (though, for a different reason, we are also backing the home to cover versus the full game chalk), and is based on data since the 2005-06 season.
The system has delivered a 15% return on investment over the examination period, statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, and has suffered only five seasons with cover rates below 50%.
To explain this consistent profitability, we hypothesize that quality teams (as indicated by a recent playoff appearance) have the talent and mental fortitude to rebound after stints of disappointing play. A home environment, complete with supportive fans that tend to sway whistles their way, only aids the effort, while competent competition reduces the potential of looking past the current contest. At the same time, after a period of poor performance, the betting public's recency bias is likely to encourage action on the opposition, which can move lines the other way, essentially lowering the bar for the cover.