NBA 1H Betting Guide: Fade bad teams on streaks
We have observed evidence of reversion among low quality NBA teams, following strong runs. As a result, we are fading the Pacers ATS in 1H action at the Sixers Wednesday, January 4th. We describe below the operative system:
In regular season NBA play, fading underdogs versus the first half line that 1) missed the last playoffs, 2) have amassed winning records on the season and 3) are riding three or four game win streaks has proven good for a statistically significant 14% long-term return on investment...
Since the 2004-05 season, this angle has suffered only three seasons with cover rates south of 50%, and is 6-3 ATS so far this year.
We suppose the consistent profitability of this angle owes to the casual betting public's recency bias, or belief in the hot-hand fallacy, which elicits support for undeserving squads following a successful stint. Empirical study though suggests strong runs represent 'sell high' opportunities for lower-quality teams.
The Pacers, who last appeared in the postseason in 2019-20 (where they were swept in the first round), currently boast a 21-17 SU record, after rattling four straight wins. Indiana will take 4 points in the first half at Philadelphia Wednesday.