May 14th NBA Action: Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavs
Fading the biggest chalk of the season for the Mavs: Raptors +14
As 10.5 point home dogs, the Toronto Raptors lost to the Bulls by 12 Thursday. The Raptors have no time for for wound-licking though, as Toronto is slated to face the Mavs in Dallas a day later, and again as big underdogs. In contrast to the most recent outcome at the Scotiabank Arena yesterday, Dallas handled the visiting New Orleans Pelicans with relative ease Wednesday, collecting the win and cover as 9.5 point favorites.
History suggests these teams recent experiences pave the way for the Raptors cover today, in our opinion. We are taking the points with Toronto accordingly.
Road teams off underdog ATS losses have proven solid bets taking double-digits from teams that covered their previous game.
This system has delivered a statistically significant 11% long-term profit since 2004 (at the 95% confidence level), with only two seasons with a cover rate below 50%. Further, adherents to this set of criteria are 12-7 versus the number so far this season.
We expect the public's recency bias plays a role is distorting lines to overvalue teams off strong recent showings, at the expense of teams that have struggled of late. Consistent with this thinking, Malis (2015) observed that NBA ATS picks by forecasters with no sports or statistical backgrounds indeed exhibited a skew in favor of better recent performers.
Also favoring the Raptors cover this evening, Curtis Blair, James Capers and Mousa Dagher are the officials assigned to the action in Dallas Friday. This season, this trio has exhibited a decided bias against the native team. Fading home squads on this crew's watch has been good for a 9% return on investment so far this year.
Finally, we cite the following team-level trends as additional, supplemental support for the Raptors' cover Friday:
Dallas 4-11 versus the number at American Airlines Center facing teams with losing records,
Mavericks 1-2 ATS laying big chalk in their building,
Dallas 6-8 ATS hosting the East,
Raptors 4-2 ATS facing the West as road dogs