May 14th NBA Action: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
Betting shorthanded Grizzlies collect the cover over limited Kings: Memphis -3.5
Memphis knocked off Sacramento 116-110 at FedExForum in Memphis Thursday. This effort was obviously good enough for the straight up win, but fell a longball shy of securing the cover (the Grizzlies closed as 8.5 point favorites). These teams will matchup in Memphis again Friday, to close out the last of the NBA's baseball-style series (which were written into this year's NBA schedule to reduce travel requirements in the age of coronavirus). History hints that the home team will collect the straight up win again, and nab the cover this time.
In rematches of day earlier intra-conference play, backing the favorite has demonstrated a definitive edge...
As a result of the novelty of the baseball-style series in the NBA schedule, this system features only twenty total observations (two of which were inconclusive). Nonetheless, statistical inference conveys a high level of confidence in the statistical significance the observed 37% return on investment.
On personnel, the Kings will play without four starters Friday, as Harrison Barnes, De'Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, III and Richaun Holmes are all unavailable. Almost as debilitating, Memphis will be without three key players, as Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson have been ruled out.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Kings differential is -4.2 points per 100 possessions absent their four incapacitated starters. In contrast, the Grizzlies are -2 points per 100 possessions without their indicated primary players. Thus, even given the personnel limitations in effect Friday, the Grizzlies advantage should lie in the ballpark of 2 points per 100 possessions. Memphis ranks 8th in the League by possessions (104), while the Kings are 12th (103). As such, we expect the pace of this contest to be sufficient to unlock Memphis's edge (and secure the cover).