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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

May 14th NBA Action: Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers

Backing the Magic +14, as the Sixers haven't shown 'killer instinct'

The Orlando Magic have lost their last five...mostly badly: -36 versus the Celtics, -10 at Charlotte, -32 versus Minnesota, -12 at Milwaukee and -23 at Atlanta just yesterday. On the other hand, the Philadelphia 76ers have rattled off eight consecutive straight up wins, and are 6-2 ATS over this run. Probably worth mentioning, the two recent 76er losses versus the number unfolded against a backdrop where Philly was favored by at least ten. Consistent with the 76ers versus the big chalk, broader history says the present spot represents a solid opportunity to take a stab at the bounce back cover for Orlando. We are taking the 14.

Teams that 1) lost their prior three games by an average of 18.5 (or more), 2) are double-digit underdogs and 3) are facing opposition that participated in the prior post-season proceedings have consistently proven to be great bets.

While relatively rare, signals from this system have proven incredibly profitable, generating a (statistically significant) 25% long-term return on investment, and including a 3-1 ATS run so far this year. Further, back to 2005, this system has delivered a cover rate below 50% only once.

We expect the betting public's irrational penchant for recent winners over losers (despite the offsetting impact of the betting spread) accounts for the ongoing profitability of this framework.

Separately, also in the Magic's favor, the referees for this contest, Brian Forte, David Guthrie and Nate Green have proven quite friendly to road covers this season--perhaps because the absence of crowds (for the most part) removed some repercussion of making calls in visiting teams' favor.

On personnel, Joel Embiid is listed as probable for the Sixers, while the Magic will have to continue to manage without James Ennis, III.

Happy betting!!

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