May 11th NBA Action: Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets
Backing the Hornets early vs. hobbled Nuggets: Charlotte 1H +2.5
The Hornets will play the fourth installment of a five-game home stand Tuesday, when the Denver Nuggets visit Spectrum Center. Charlotte is 1-2 SU through the first three games, after suffering a narrow loss, as 3-point favorites, to the Pelicans Sunday.
History hints that the recent surprise home loss sets the stage for a bounce-back cover for the host team today, at least versus the first half spread.
Teams on home stands of at least four games have proven great first half bets after surprise losses when facing opposition that made an appearance in last year's post-season.
This system has delivered an 18% long-term return, including only three years with losing records. While only 8-9 versus the number so far this season, the approach's track record of consistent, statistically significant profits suggests a strong close is more likely than more losses to finish the season.
On personnel, in addition to Jamal Murray, Monte Morris and Will Barton being unavailable for Denver, P.J. Dozier is the newest addition to the injury report...(the Mile High injury report is approaching a mile long!).
We note that Dozier is a top-25 defender at the shooting guard position, per ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) statistic. Consistent with this observation, per CleaningTheGlass.com, of the 1,578 offensive and defensive possessions this year when neither Dozier or Jamal Murray were engaged in the action, the Nuggets were outscored by better than five points per 100 possessions. The various Denver lineup configurations that exclude these two players allowed opposition about eight points per 100 possessions more than when Murray and Dozier were on the court.
The Nuggets thinness at the guard spot Tuesday is probably consistent with a big night for the Hornets' "Scary" Terry Dozier, a top-ten two-guard in the NBA, per RPM, and even LaMelo Ball.
But in addition to the broad historical precedent in Charlotte's favor, and the personnel issues that appear to constrain Denver's defensive prowess, we highlight a few team level tendencies on display this season that mostly fit with the idea of the home cover:
Charlotte 34-33 ATS on the year, vs. Denver's 32-36 record,
Hornets 20-14 ATS following a loss,
Charlotte is 11-8-1 vs the betting line taking points in their building,
Nuggets 16-12 ATS versus the East,
and Denver 4-1 against the spread after dropping two in a row,
But the Nuggets 3-5 against the spread after 2-3 days off